1482-2009 recorded by 19 Baghdad hospitals

NOTE 1: Prevention of double-counting by IBC

Iraq Body Count (IBC) database entry x073, the largest single entry so far, is based on the records of Baghdad's 19 largest hospitals encompassing 1,101 civilians and a further 1,255 "probable civilians" killed between 19th March and 9th April 2003, as reported by Knight-Ridder newspapers[1] and AP[2]. Of Baghdad's 33 hospitals [source: ICRC], the Red Crescent describes these 19 as "the likeliest to have received dead and injured during the war."

The IBC database contains many existing entries for civilan deaths in Baghdad, some of which explicitly mention hospitals and others which do not, presenting ample opportunity for overlapping reports. To prevent double-counting, IBC has conservatively assumed that all of Baghdad's civilian deaths recorded in its database were also recorded by one or other of these 19 hospitals, unless the reports contained details providing specific reasons to doubt or reject this.

This of course excludes those deaths which were clearly reported as having occurred outside the applicable time window of 19 March - 9 April. A small number of the source reports for incidents in the database (j022, x064) contained details of particular individuals within a database entry who were reported as dying outside the time-window; these were discounted from our calculations, but the remaining numbers in these incidents were treated conservatively, and included. In a few "doubtful" cases (x023, x051, j027, x064), subtractions were still made, but only from the Minimum column.

In summary:
out of a possible 327 overlapping cases in the Minimum column, 315 were subtracted;
out of a possible 414 overlapping cases in the Maximum column, 346 were subtracted.

The action taken for each qualifying incident in the IBC database and the numbers involved are given in the table below.

Key to table:
Numbers in square brackets are those applicable numbers that were NOT subtracted. Reasons for non-subtraction include:
D: Date - no or uncertain overlap
H: No (or no Iraqi) hospital involved
L: Location - outside or on periphery of Baghdad

NOTE 2: Interpreting the phrase "probably civilians" and extracting the numbers for x073

The source reports cite the hospital records as showing "at least 1,101 Iraqi civilians killed" and that "another 1,255 were 'probably' civilians, including many women and children," noting that "the failure to specify was in part because of the enormous volume of bodies." (One hospital which accounted for 450 of the 1255 who were "probably civilians" stated that 30% were women and children.)

IBC's "Minimum reported" and "Maximum reported" number of civilian deaths for these reports (prior to any subtractions for overlaps) were derived as follows:

Step 1:

1101 - For Min and Max
 135 - For Min and Max (30% of 450 within the 1255 "probable civilians"- see previous paragraph)
 
Step 1 result: 1236 to be added to both Min and Max

Step 2:

(135 having been subtracted from 1255 in Step 1, we are left with 1120 dead who were "probably" civilians.)

"Probably" was interpreted to mean for the Minimum column, "the bare minimum above an even likelihood":

(1120÷2)+1 = 561 For Min

For the Maximum column "probably" was intepreted as meaning "the bare minimum below certainty":

1120-1 = 1119 For Max

Step 2 result: 561 to be added to Min and 1119 to be added to Max

Step 3:

Adding the results of Steps 1 + 2, we get 1797 to be added to the Min and 2355 to be added to the Max (prior to any subtractions to prevent double-counting)

We can now subtract the overlapping and possible overlapping numbers from the above and derive our published numbers:

1797-315 = 1482 Minimum reported civilian deaths for x073

2355-346 = 2009 Maximum reported civilian deaths for x073

If details later emerge that are of relevance to any of the calculations above, IBC will adjust its figures accordingly.

[1] KRT 04 May
[2] AP 03 May