This entry covers 1,375 deaths recorded at the Baghdad city morgue during May
2006. As in previous entries based on morgue records, a series of adjustments
was made to the initial “raw” figure before Iraq Body Count (IBC)
added the x493e entry to its database. Principal considerations were:
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Pre and post-war mortality levels for the periods covered
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Possible presence of combatants among the dead
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Overlaps with existing IBC entries
1. Pre and post-war mortality levels for the periods covered
IBC only includes violent civilian deaths in its count that are directly attributable
to the military intervention in Iraq. One of the results of the intervention
has been a calamitous breakdown in civil security, particularly in Baghdad,
which continues to worsen as insurgency, counter-insurgency, sectarian, and
less-readily identifiable killings compound increased deaths from “ordinary” crime.
The principal role of the morgue is to identify the cause of death for legal
purposes, meaning that all “suspicious” deaths, including those
from accidents, are referred there. Such deaths, and those from crime, occurred
during the pre-war period as they would in any big city, and would have continued
at some level whether or not Iraq was invaded. (Indeed morgue officials say
that 80-90 percent of the bodies currently being brought to the morgue are
of violent deaths [Reuters, AP, July 2006].)
This ordinary, “background” rate of autopsies is therefore subtracted
by IBC from post-invasion morgue figures. Where known, the exact number of
a corresponding pre-war month in 2002-2003 is subtracted. Where the exact figure
is unknown, we subtract “200-250 per month,” based on interviews
with the morgue’s long-standing director, a figure that also accords
well with exact numbers, which all fall within this range.
Accordingly, the total adjustment for the ordinary, background rate
of pre-war autopsies to x493e was 250 (subtracted from the more conservative
Min column) and 200 (subtracted from the Max column).
2. Possible presence of combatants among the dead
IBC does not record Iraqi army, insurgents or other fighters in its count unless
they are killed post-capture (at which point they assume "protected
person" status under international conventions). The morgue does not
handle deaths among the Iraqi defence forces, but other combatants may be
present in their records. To adjust for the possible presence of such fighters
in its count, it was important that IBC find alternative sources or methods
for deriving their potential number.
Figures from the Iraqi Interior Ministry were available during 2005 for 'insurgents'
killed during clashes with government forces (police, soldiers and US troops),
including those killed during raids who resisted arrest. There are no such
figures available for May 2006, and our analysis had revealed no discernible
month-by-month correlation between civilian, police, or insurgent figures
during the previous year. Furthermore there have since 2005 been more deaths
of militia in inter-tribal or 'sectarian' killings (thereby likely placing
more combatants into the morgue figures), while at the same time more of
these deaths have been caused not in fighting but in captures followed by
execution, effectively taking these dead out of IBC "combatant" status,
and making them eligible for inclusion in our count (see preceding paragraph).
We resume here our past method for estimating the presence of combatants in
the morgue figures, the reasoning for which was explained in earlier morgue
entries:
To allow for the sentence in the reports which reads "Also,
the bodies of killed fighters from groups like the al-Mahdi Army are rarely
taken to morgues," an estimate of "between 1 in 50 to 1 in 25" was
used to represent the fighters' "rarely" featuring in morgue statistics.
Pending the availability of discrete May 2006 data allowing a more
precise estimate for Iraqi combatants, we subtract 4 percent from the Min column
and 2 percent from the Max column to produce "fighter-free" estimates
for x493e.
3. Overlaps with existing IBC entries
Deaths in Baghdad in May 2006 already recorded by IBC and caused by gunfire
and non-explosive weaponry were subtracted from both the Min and Max columns
for x493e, since such deaths are typically referred to the morgue.
In some reports from the morgue it is stated that deaths from bombings are
not handled there. However, in other and more detailed interviews, it is
stated that it is deaths from “major” explosions that do not
require forensic attention because the circumstances of the deaths are already
well known. To identify those incidents which might not be considered “major” in
post-invasion Baghdad we looked at the frequency of incidents involving bombings
in the city that had relatively small numbers of casualties. We included
injured in this since an incident that kills 3 but wounds 19 is unlikely
to be considered minor.
Our analysis showed a sharp drop-off in frequency after 8 combined casualties
(killed and wounded). All Baghdad bombing events recorded by IBC below this
number were considered to be potential, but not definite, overlaps with the
morgue data, and accordingly were only removed from the Min column of x493e.
In all, some 140 overlapping and potentially overlapping IBC entries
were identified in the database, leading to the removal of 475 from the Min
and 457 from the Max.
As a result of the steps described in 1., 2., and 3., above, a total of 780
and 684 were subtracted from the 1,375 media-reported raw number for May
2006, leading to an addition of 595 (min) - 691 (max)
to the IBC database.