The x460a-x460h series of entries in the IBC database is based on records of
the Baghdad city morgue covering the period May-December 2004. As such it
represents a continuation of previous Baghdad morgue-based IBC entries covering
April 2003-April 2004. Then as now, the chief cause of fatalities is the
post-invasion breakdown in civil security and unchecked growth in mostly
criminal violence. About 60% of autopsies performed by the morgue are of
violent killings ("homicides", principally from gunfire), and it
is only these deaths which are added to IBC's database. And as before, IBC's
entries do not include all of these deaths as recorded by the morgue but
only those over and above the ordinary pre-war level of such deaths in the
city, as recorded by the same institution (the Baghdad city morgue, also
known as the Medico-Legal Institute).
One significant change since our earlier entries is the steep rise in the level
of insurgent activity, which from our own data we estimate to have increased
more than four-fold in Baghdad from May 2004 onwards. Our earlier morgue-based
entries contained subtractions for the reportedly "rare" presence
of insurgents among the dead; we have increased these more than four-fold
in the x460-series to account for this on-the-ground change. Another change,
this time in the reporting of the types of deaths covered by the morgue's "homicide" data,
is that this no longer includes deaths from bombings; however this remains
somewhat uncertain, as is the claim that only gunfire deaths are included
among the violent killings reported by the morgue. These issues are of relevance
to overlaps with existing IBC reporting and were dealt with as outlined below,
where we list the methods employed to obtain earlier Baghdad morgue entries,
with changes for the x460 series given in bold.
-
To allow for the sentence in the reports which reads "Also, the bodies
of killed fighters from groups like the al-Mahdi Army are rarely taken to
morgues," an estimate of "between 1 in 50 to 1 in 25" was
used to represent the "rare" presence of fighters in the morgue
statistics. AP's Baghdad figure was accordingly reduced by 4 per cent and
2 percent to produce "fighter-free" minimum and maximum estimates. The
numbers produced by these estimates were increased 4.25-fold in the x460-series
to account for a corresponding increase in insurgent activity documented
after April 2004.
-
These numbers were further reduced by morgue data for the equivalent 2002-2003
periods (and locations) to provide an adjustment for normal "background" death
rates unattributable to the war and its aftermath. It is only the difference
between the pre- and post-invasion rates which are recorded here.
-
Deaths which may already have been recorded by IBC from other reporting for
the locations and periods concerned were subtracted from the totals obtained
after step 2 to avoid overlaps and double-counting (See the "Details..." note
to x073 for an example of the Methodology used in such
instances).
-
We also allowed for the statement from the director of statistics at the
Baghdad morgue that "The figure [reported by the morgue] does not
include most people killed in big terrorist bombings": Where there
were existing, potentially-overlapping records of this nature identified
in step 3, above, those overlaps were reduced by "half+1" for
overlaps smaller than 10 and by 60 per cent for larger ones — "60
per cent" being our interpretation of the term "most" as
used here. In the current crop of reports it is stated by the morgue's
deputy director that deaths from bombings (not just "big terrorist
bombings") are not dealt with by the morgue because the "cause
of death is already known by the police". However, we judged that
victims of certain types of "minor" explosions - including roadside
bombs and mortars - and of US-coalition air strikes may continue to receive
at least preliminary investigation or cause of death confirmation at the
morgue, and that therefore victims of such incidents already in the IBC
database may constitute overlaps with the new morgue data. To allow for
this possiblity, those incidents were removed from the Min column of our
x460 estimates, but not from the Max column (to allow for the counter-possibility).
If details later emerge that are of relevance to any of the calculations
above, IBC will adjust its figures accordingly.