919-1008 additional bodies at Baghdad morgue

This entry covers 1,595 deaths recorded at the Baghdad city morgue during June 2006. As in previous entries based on morgue records, a series of adjustments was made to the initial “raw” figure before Iraq Body Count (IBC) added the x493f entry to its database. Principal considerations were:

1. Possible presence of combatants among the dead

2. Pre and post-war mortality levels for the periods covered

3. Overlaps with existing IBC entries

1. Possible presence of combatants among the dead

IBC does not record Iraqi army, insurgents or other fighters in its count unless they are killed post-capture (at which point they assume "protected person" status under international conventions). The morgue does not handle deaths among the Iraqi defence forces, but other combatants may be present in their records. To adjust for the possible presence of such fighters in its count, it was important that IBC find alternative sources or methods for deriving their potential number.

Figures from the Iraqi Interior Ministry were available during 2005 for 'insurgents' killed during clashes with government forces (police, soldiers and US troops), including those killed during raids who resisted arrest. There are no such figures available for June 2006, and our analysis had revealed no discernible month-by-month correlation between civilian, police, or insurgent figures during the previous year. Furthermore there have since 2005 been more deaths of militia in inter-tribal or 'sectarian' killings (thereby likely placing more combatants into the morgue figures), while at the same time more of these deaths have been caused not in fighting but in captures followed by execution, effectively taking these dead out of IBC "combatant" status and making them eligible for inclusion in our count (see preceding paragraph).

We resume here our past method for estimating the presence of combatants in the morgue figures, the reasoning for which was explained in earlier morgue entries:

To allow for the sentence in the reports which reads "Also, the bodies of killed fighters from groups like the al-Mahdi Army are rarely taken to morgues," an estimate of "between 1 in 50 to 1 in 25" was used to represent the fighters' "rarely" featuring in morgue statistics.

Pending the availability of discrete June 2006 data allowing a more precise estimate for Iraqi combatants, we subtract 4 percent from the Min column and 2 percent from the Max column to produce "fighter-free" estimates for x493e.

2. Pre and post-war mortality levels for the periods covered

IBC only includes violent civilian deaths in its count that are directly attributable to the military intervention in Iraq. One of the results of the intervention has been a calamitous breakdown in civil security, particularly in Baghdad, which continues to worsen as insurgency, counter-insurgency, sectarian, and less-readily identifiable killings compound increased deaths from “ordinary” crime. The principal role of the morgue is to identify the cause of death for legal purposes, meaning that all “suspicious” deaths, including those from accidents, are referred there. Such deaths, and those from crime, occurred during the pre-war period as they would in any big city, and would have continued at some level whether or not Iraq was invaded. (Indeed morgue officials say that 80-90 percent of the bodies currently being brought to the morgue are of violent deaths [Reuters, AP, July 2006].)

This ordinary, “background” rate of autopsies is therefore subtracted by IBC from post-invasion morgue figures. Where known, the exact number of a corresponding pre-war month in 2002-2003 is subtracted. Where the exact figure is unknown, we subtract “200-250 per month,” based on interviews with the morgue’s long-standing director, a figure that also accords well with exact numbers, which all fall within this range.

Accordingly, the total adjustment for the ordinary, background rate of pre-war autopsies to x493e was 250 (subtracted from the more conservative Min column) and 200 (subtracted from the Max column).

3. Overlaps with existing IBC entries

Deaths in Baghdad in June 2006 already recorded by IBC and caused by gunfire and non-explosive weaponry were subtracted from both the Min and Max columns for x493e, since such deaths are typically referred to the morgue.

In some reports from the morgue it is stated that deaths from bombings are not handled there. However, in other and more detailed interviews, it is stated that this refers to deaths from “major” explosions that do not require forensic attention because the circumstances of the deaths are already well known. To identify those incidents which might not be considered “major” in post-invasion Baghdad we looked at the frequency of incidents involving bombings in the city that had relatively small numbers of casualties. We included injured in this since an incident that kills 3 but wounds 19 is unlikely to be considered minor.

Our analysis showed a sharp drop-off in frequency after 8 combined casualties (killed and wounded). All Baghdad bombing events recorded by IBC below this number were considered to be potential, but not definite, overlaps with the morgue data, and accordingly were only removed from the Min column of x493f.

In all, some 99 overlapping and potentially overlapping IBC entries were identified in the database, leading to the removal of 243 from the Min and 236 from the Max.

As a result of the steps described in 1., 2., and 3., above, a total of 557 and 468 were subtracted from the 1,595 media-reported raw number for June 2006, leading to an addition of 1,038 (min) - 1,127 (max) to the IBC database.