Many experts and expert groups from a range of fields are attempting to combine their knowledge to understand the lethality to Iraqis of the invasion and post-invasion violence in Iraq.
This is a slightly abridged and amended version of an invited "meta-analysis" of IBC's potential contribution to that understanding, presented in a closed meeting of the Ad Hoc Expert Group on mortality estimates for Iraq, convened by WHO in Geneva, May 2007.
IBC’s database may be the largest, but is it “reliable”?
It is almost certain that the IBC data base is the largest compilation of known violent civilian deaths in Iraq. But does this make it “reliable”?
The term “reliable” is used in different ways, and in order to allow a more rigorous assessment, we address four specific aspects of reliability:
- Completeness. What is the relationship between those deaths reported in the media and the total number of deaths that have occurred?
- Certainty and bias. How certain can we be that deaths in the IBC data base actually happened, and that media reports do not introduce specific biases regarding the types of incident likely to be reported?
- Level of detail. Is the level of detail available in press and media reports adequate to ensure uniqueness of each death?
- Timeliness. Can solid aggregated media information be made available quickly?